2023 Predictions
As I reflect on 2022, I’m filled with gratitude. Many of us went through very tough times, big challenges and heartbreaking loss. We also shared incredible achievements, life changing decisions and simple joys. I’m grateful to have earned a seat at your table, and to have shared mine with you.
I’m certain 2023 will bring us all a full helping of personal ups and downs which can’t be predicted, so I’ll stick with what I know: Startups and Technology.
With that in mind, here are my 10 thoughts and predictions for 2023.
1. More startups - the trend started when Covid drove us remote and many people tasted freedom for the first time. The US had about 2.5 million new business starts a year prior to the pandemic. Today that number is well over 5 million and growing. My prediction for 2023 is continued growth in the number of startups globally.
2. Smaller startups - the increasing ability for individuals to create a business online using no-code tools and e-commerce, combined with the incredible reach of TikTok, Instagram, YouTube and Twitter, have made it possible to do more with less. This trend will continue as entrepreneurs develop models to test problems and solutions faster with hardly any investment.
3. Remote frustration - the initial excitement of remote work is wearing off for many business owners, and for workers who actually enjoy the office. I admit, I’m an introvert and even I miss real face-to-face teamwork. But many teams are fractured and reporting increased frustration, anxiety and stress. This will lead to new solutions to help teams build stronger bonds, address mental health issues, and close the social gap created by asynchronous remote work.
4. Accelerator Franchises - I’ve noticed a growing trend in the number of accelerators that are charging founders, and taking equity, instead of investing in them. It’s more like a startup boot camp disguised as an accelerator. I’m not sure how I feel about this yet. On one hand it’s great because more founders are getting access to valuable networks, education and technology. On the other hand these accelerators prey on founder naïveté.
5. Artificial Intelligence - AI is crossing the chasm. ChatGPT is educating all of us about AI, it’s uses, power, and possibilities. Even though Startups have been using AI for years, 2023 will see it break out into mainstream discussion. Political, economic, social... we may even see the government pass laws to regulate how it’s used.
6. Micro-internships - I work with students who share how difficult it is to get an internship. I also talk with companies about the challenges of having an internship program. These two forces are creating a new solution called micro-internships. Startups like Parker Dewey have applied the Upwork model to internships and are making it easier than ever to find great students, conduct tiny projects, and fulfill the needs of both students and companies. I used Parker Dewey and a program sponsored by Florida International University to select an Honors student for a one week project. I was blown away by the outcome and I’ll be doing many more of these in 2023.
7. More Twitter - whether you like it or not, Twitter has a megaphone and whether you like him or not, Elon Musk knows how to use it. One positive thing I see coming out of this is more transparency in discourse. We’ve also seen more transparency in how big businesses are managed, funded, and influenced.
8. Mental and Behavioral Health Apps - the confluence of social media, remote work, Covid anxiety, economic insecurity, failing educational systems, geographic dispersion and uncovered challenges of diversity and equity have put a spotlight on mental and behavioral health. Healthcare institutions are overloaded and don’t have the staff to support the problem. The bottleneck is the doctor. The solution is offloading everything possible and using technology to scale it. We’ve already seen demand for apps that help us meditate and apps that connect us with services. There are now apps, powered by scientific data and AI, that are helping people diagnose issues like anxiety, and giving them immediate access to behavioral health solutions. I see mental and behavioral health growing in awareness and integrated solutions in 2023.
9. Physical meetings - I think 2023 will be the year we turn the corner and invest heavily in face to face meetings. I don’t think this means companies will force people back to the office. I think companies will invest in periodic meetups. This can be in the form of company conferences, team off-sites, remote hubs, and retreats. Companies that invest in physical meetings will innovate and grow faster than their fully remote competitors.
10. Smaller teams win - teamwork and team management have been challenging for decades. We’ve gone from massive teams, to pods, adhoc teams, to cross-functional and shared teams. Some say it differs based on the outcome, some say there’s a limit to the number of people you can have on a team before it falls apart. I see increased AI support, with better and more integrated technology, finally breaking through to allow smaller teams to thrive. Small teams establish trust faster. Small teams help each other overcome challenges faster. Small teams talk more... if they’re a healthy team.
So our challenge in 2023 will be to create and balance more small teams, give them the tools to build trust, the opportunity to meet face-to-face, the technology to offload work to AI, and the support to understand and overcome mental and behavioral health challenges.
With that, I hope you all enjoy a safe and happy new year celebration! See you next year! -- Mash